Book Project
Latin America is the most unequal region in the world, yet the belief systems of its economic elites, some of the most consequential actors to whether that changes, remain poorly understood. Drawing on 131 in-depth interviews with some of the wealthiest and most powerful businesspeople in Honduras, Mexico, and Uruguay, a large corpus of elite public statements, and a survey experiment, this book asks a prior question to the standard story of elite obstruction: what do these actors actually believe, and why? The central finding is that elite preferences are not simply a function of self-interest. They are shaped by the institutional environment elites operate in, specifically, their perceptions of state capacity. Where the state is seen as functional and honest, meritocratic narratives predominate; where it is seen as corrupt or failing, even the most powerful businesspeople acknowledge the system is “rigged”. Yet a consistent pattern runs across all three contexts: elites oppose redistribution not categorically, but conditionally. They accept in principle that those who earn more should pay more. What they reject is giving resources to a state they do not trust. This means elite resistance to redistribution is not fixed, but contingent on institutional quality.
Journal Articles
Manzi, P. (2026). Explaining Inequality: Economic Elite Narratives Across Latin America. Socio-Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwag043.
De La O, A., Rossel, C. & Manzi, P. (2025). Opting Out of Public Services and the Social Contract in Latin America. Oxford Open Economics. https://doi.org/10.1093/ooec/odae016
García-Montoya, L., & Manzi, P. (2023). From Economic to Political Power: Economic Elites and Policymaking During Times of Crisis. Journal of Politics in Latin America. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X231180897
Rossel, C., Antía, F., & Manzi, P. (2023). The Politics of Sanctioning the Poor Through Welfare Conditionality: Revealing Causal Mechanisms in Uruguay. Social Policy & Administration. https://doi.org/10.1111/spol.12911
Amarante, V., Colacce, M., & Manzi, P. (2021). Aging and Productivity in Latin America. Latin American Research Review, 56(4), 844–863. https://doi.org/10.25222/larr.924
Amarante, V., Colacce, M., & Manzi, P. (2017). The Gender Gap in Pensions in Latin America. International Social Security Review, 70(2), 57–85. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12135
Book Chapters
Antía, F., Rossel, C., & Manzi, P. (2022). The Politics of Conditionality in Social Investment Reforms: Evidence from Latin America’s Cash Transfers. In The World Politics of Social Investment: The Politics of Varying Social Investment Strategies (Vol. 2). Oxford University Press.
Manzi, P., & Weylandt, M. (2021). Causal Inference and the Scientific Method. In Empirical Methods in the Political Science: An Introduction. Northwestern University Libraries.
Manzi, P. (2021). Data. In Empirical Methods in the Political Science: An Introduction. Northwestern University Libraries.
Working Papers
Manzi, P. (co-authored with P. Diaz Andrade). “Beyond Survey Checkboxes: How People Explain Poverty and Wealth”
Manzi, P. (co-authored with L. García-Montoya). “The Politics of Offshore Exit: Redistributive Threats and Elite Wealth Defense”
Manzi, P. (co-authored with C. Rossel & A. De la O). “Does Private Education Erode the Social Contract? Evidence from Peru”